DSince 2021, Africa has had 25 million more people without power: the fault of the Covid-19 pandemic and then the crisis, which put an end to ten years of progress, notes the Africa Energy Outlook 2022 of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which publishes a new report this Monday, June 20. “We had seen a lot of positive developments, in Ghana, Kenya, Rwanda… but the trend is reversing. About 4% more Africans now live without electricity compared to 2019,” Fatih Birol, director of the agency, told AFP. “And when I look to 2022, with high energy prices and the economic burden that means for African countries, I see little reason to be optimistic. »
Preparing for the future
Increasing energy efficiency and expanding power grids and renewable capacities are the foundations of the continent’s energy future, says the IEA. It has 60% of the world’s solar resources, but only hosts 1% of photovoltaic installations, less than the Netherlands. Renewables should, along with wind power, dams and geothermal energy, form 80% of installed electrical capacity by 2030, both for energy and climate objectives, underlines the IEA’s Sustainable Africa Scenario.
But for that, it will be necessary to “double the investments”, explains Fatih Birol. “The international financial institutions, particularly the multilateral development banks, must receive a strong mandate from the countries to make Africa a top priority. […] capable of attracting private capital. »
Today, “Africa receives only 7% of green energy funding provided by advanced economies to developing countries,” insists the economist. However, “this subject can be solved by the end of this decade with an annual investment of 25 billion dollars, the amount necessary to build a new LNG terminal each year”, he says. “We are reading in the newspaper every day that one country is building an LNG terminal, another another another terminal… With the same amount, we could solve the energy problem in Africa, so that’s all fully within our reach. »
African countries punished?
African leaders continue to sound the alarm, last week, Niger’s President Mohamed Bazoum estimated that African countries were “punished” by the decisions of Western countries to end the financing of projects related to fossil fuels this year . “We will continue to fight, we have fossil resources that must be exploited,” he pleaded in Abidjan, at the end of the Africa CEO Forum, an economic summit bringing together 1,500 business leaders and political decision-makers.
At the end of May, the G7 countries notably undertook to end all international financing of projects related to fossil fuels without carbon capture techniques as of this year. “Let the African continent be allowed to exploit its natural resources!” It is still inconceivable that those who have exploited oil and its derivatives for more than a century are preventing African countries from developing their resources,” added his Senegalese counterpart Macky Sall at his side.
The IEA also stresses the potential role of gas, but only for transitional and national use. “Africa has several identified natural gas fields that have not yet been exploited. If they were, it would be 90 billion m3 annual, to produce agricultural fertilizers, cement and drinking water from seawater”, so many energy-intensive industries, explains Fatih Birol. “Africa accounts for less than 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions. If this gas were exploited, it would fall to less than 3.5%, whereas it is 20% of the human population. “For gas as for everything, we cannot put Africa in the same basket as the others”, continues the economist. “For example, urbanization: 70 million residential buildings must be built there by 2030. That means cement and steel, and you can’t do it with solar alone” at its current level.
The promises of green energy
On the other hand, the global transition to green energy holds promise. After having largely suffered the era of fossil fuels – both in terms of their cost and their role in global warming – the continent could be among the “first beneficiaries” of this new chapter, with its solar potential and the industrial opportunities linked to the needs for metals and green hydrogen, underlines the IEA.
40% of the world’s reserves of strategic metals are found there, which will be essential for equipping electric cars or wind turbine rotors. “And there are still huge stocks still undiscovered,” adds the director of the IEA. “But all of this will require new geological studies, strong governments, and doing everything to minimize the social and environmental impacts” of mining activities.
As for hydrogen from renewable electricity, it will be highly sought after around the world to decarbonise industry and heavy transport.
However, by 2030, renewable hydrogen produced in Africa will be less expensive than that produced in Europe, shipping costs included, says Fatih Birol, who hopes that “COP27 in Egypt [en novembre, NDLR] will put Africa’s energy progress at the heart of the debates”.
