After the two parts unveiled in August 2021 and February 2022, which explained the mechanisms of global warming and detailed the present and future impacts, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change published, on Monday, the options that would make it possible to maintain at most 2° the rise in temperature. Provided you do it quickly, strong immediately.
“The world is not on the right trajectory”insists Céline Guivarc’h, “but we have the means to partially correct the situation. The years to come will be critical” in terms of chances of achieving it, insists Raphaël Jachnik.
This Monday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate, the IPCC, published the third part of its sixth evaluation cycle, since 1988. And blew cold and hot, or rather cold and lukewarm to the like the research director of Cired, the International Center on Environment and Development, and the finance and environment analyst of the OECD, both among the French editors of the document.
The evidence is clear: the time for action is now. We can stop emissions by 2030.
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— IPCC (@IPCC_CH) April 4, 2022
Six months after a first scientific component which irrefutably established changes “unprecedented for thousands, if not hundreds of thousands of years”in terms of climate, and the character “irreversible” on similar time scales of some of their impacts already observed, this time it was a question of considering the solutions “attenuation”. Drastic reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at the origin of the transformation of the climate.
“Ensuring a viable future”
If human society is not on the right track today, it is because its “emissions are still on the rise and at an all-time high”, reports Céline Guivarc’h. That if this progression slowed down between 2010 and 2019 compared to the previous decade -1.3% annual growth against -2.1%, “only the achievement of zero emissions during this century” will be such as to stop the temperature increase.
“We are at a crossroadssaid this Monday afternoon the Korean president of the Giec Hoesung Lee. The decisions we make now can ensure a viable future.”, the use of the verb power being the bearer of the same uncertainty as that of the viability of the planet if nothing is done. Quickly.
The objective set is an average increase in temperature on Earth of 1.5° in 2100. To achieve this, the 278 authors of the report write that greenhouse gas emissions must have fallen by 43% in 2030 and by 84% in 2050 compared to 2019. To contain the increase to 2°, these reductions will have to be 27 and 63% respectively. Corn “every fraction of a degree counts. The more we increase the presence of GHGs in the atmosphere, the more complicated risk management will become”observes Céline Guivarc’h, the stronger the impacts will be.
Options in all sectors
In February, the second part of the report listed “more heat waves, longer hot seasons, shorter cold seasons”. Wind, snow, ice, humidity, drought, shores, oceans are and will be further modified. Except to act immediately and massively on our emissions: “There are options in all sectorsindicates the Cired researcher, we have the tools.”
“It’s now or never, if we want to limit global warming to 1.5°C (2.7°F).” – #IPCC Working Group III Co-Chair Jim Skea on the release of IPCC’s latest #ClimateReport on the mitigation of #climatechange.
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— IPCC (@IPCC_CH) April 4, 2022
At the origin of 25% of this atmospheric pollution, industry must strive for greater efficiency, reuse and recycling of materials. Technologies with little or no emissions in the manufacture of raw materials have been developed and are “close to commercial stage”underline the rapporteurs by way of example.
The use of green electricity, hydrogen, carbon capture and storage will help it achieve its objectives, when the transformation of buildings, cities, the abandonment of fossil fuels, the massive electrification of transport, agriculture, forests are significant sources of reduction, as well as the change in our lifestyles and consumption.
The social and economic impact of the transition
Engineer, director of Cired and also co-author of this part III, Franck Lecocq does not hide the fact that an acceleration of the reduction of GHGs will not “not without friction. Transformations have an economic and social cost.” Not to mention decline, “they lead to a slowdown in economic growth, modest but realhe admits. But the report also shows that the benefits of limiting the impacts of climate change outweigh their costs.”
In truth, do we have a choice? This Monday, the 195 member countries of the IPCC have by acknowledging the content of the document admitted that no. “The longer we wait to act, the more difficult it is, the more expensive it becomes”recalls Céline Guivarc’h, who blows: “We are not completely heard.”