Lhe French situation in Mali is more precarious than ever. Faced with a hostile military junta which has just demanded the departure of its ambassador, France is giving itself a fortnight to establish a new strategy in Mali, where it has been engaged for nine years in the fight against jihadism. In 2020, however, Paris had finally managed to involve its European partners in its action in the Sahel, by creating the European group of special forces Tabuka.
But the arrival in Malian affairs of a military junta, determined to mark its disagreements with Paris, disrupts the work carried out on the spot. The members of Tabuka will therefore work “by mid-February” to “plan an adaptation” of their system in Mali, in view of the “gradual isolation” of this country, announced Tuesday 1er February government spokesman Gabriel Attal.
“The situation cannot remain as it is. By mid-February, we will work with our partners to see what is the evolution of our presence on the spot “and” to plan an adaptation “, he declared on France Info the day after the announcement. the expulsion of the French ambassador, in reaction to recent statements deemed hostile by French officials.
This decision culminates tensions between Bamako and the former colonial power, which still has more than 4,000 soldiers in the Sahel, more than half of them in Mali, despite a reduction in the system begun last summer, offset by the arrival European reinforcements. Asked whether French troops were going to withdraw from Mali, the government spokesman noted that Paris had “gradually reduced the sails and we will continue to do so”.
In fact, discussions between Europeans are already going well behind the scenes since the junta’s recent decision to demand the withdrawal of a contingent of Danish special forces, who have come to swell the ranks of the Takuba force, which includes 800 soldiers in Mali.
“Countries will take a decision within the next 14 days on what the future of the fight against terrorism in the Sahel should look like,” Danish Defense Minister Trine Bramsen said on Friday, while Takuba, symbol of a Europe of defense dear to Emmanuel Macron, is today dependent on the goodwill of Bamako to exist.
Brain teaser
Bilateral relations have continued to deteriorate since colonels took over by force in August 2020 the head of Mali, plunged since 2012 into a deep security and political crisis. In no hurry to return power to civilians, the putschists have entered into resistance in recent months against a large part of the international community, including its neighbors, and blow on the embers of a latent regional anti-French feeling.
France and its European allies are also alarmed by the call made, according to them, by the junta to mercenaries from the sulphurous Russian mercenary company Wagner, reputed to be close to the Kremlin. The junta persists in denying it.
In the midst of the French presidency of the European Union and three months before the French presidential election in which Emmanuel Macron will no doubt run again, a forced withdrawal from Mali after nine years of commitment at the cost of 48 French deaths (53 in the Sahel ) would be a major setback. But the attitude of the junta makes this scenario increasingly difficult to avoid, according to many observers.
“Can a French soldier still risk his life for the protection of a bankrupt country which expels its ambassador? “, was indignant Tuesday on Twitter the retired French colonel Raphaël Bernard, author of the work published in November In the heart of Barkhanenamed after the French anti-jihadist operation in the Sahel.
However, an exit from Mali would not be without difficulty. The disengagement of the French soldiers, firmly established on bases in Gao, Ménaka and Gossi, would take many months to organize, according to the staff. In addition, the relocation of Takuba promises to be a headache: neighboring Niger has made it known that it will not host this task force. As for Burkina Faso, it has just experienced a coup d’etat.
The vacuum left by the troops would finally not fail to benefit the jihadist movements affiliated, depending on the zone, with Al-Qaeda or the Islamic State group, which have retained a strong power of nuisance despite the elimination of many leaders. While the violence has spread to Burkina Faso and Niger, as well as to the north of Côte d’Ivoire, Benin and Ghana, France in any case retains the firm intention of maintaining its presence in the region by strengthening its cooperation activities, according to concordant sources.
